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MARKET UPDATE

Markets Look Through Volatility

Global markets started Q2 strong before shifting gears in the latter half of the quarter. The U.S. stood out, bolstered by solid corporate earnings and a surge in capital spending—particularly on AI infrastructure.

This strength contrasted with countries more dependent on energy imports, which faced headwinds. International markets bounced back from a sluggish Q1, with regions riding the AI wave outperforming others. The silver lining? Market volatility has reset valuations without shaking the fundamentals underneath—a reassuring backdrop for investors.

 

Three Big Catalysts

This quarter hinged on three major forces: 1.) The accelerating AI arms race, 2.) Geopolitical tensions from the Strait of Hormuz and energy volatility and 3.) New Federal Reserve leadership under Kevin Warsh.

 

The AI Investment Boom

Hyperscalers are spending north of $2 billion daily on AI capex, and the pace shows no signs of slowing. We're moving beyond hype; real use cases are emerging and reshaping how companies operate and support their workforces. The critical question —whether AI will actually move the needle on profits— is starting to get answered as these massive investments continue. It's an unprecedented moment, and we're still in the early innings.

 

Energy Volatility Matters

Energy prices and supply remain key market movers. Disruptions flowing from the Strait of Hormuz could trigger sharp market swings (illustrated in Oil Prices chart). That said, the U.S. has a structural advantage many countries lack: It produces approximately 13.8 million barrels of crude oil daily and imports only about 3 million (down from about 10 million in 2010) (illustrated in AAA National Daily Averages chart). As a net exporter, this places the U.S. in a unique position to support its industrial activity with lower reliance on foreign energy.



Sources: Bloomberg, RBC Rochdale as of 7/28/2026. Information is subject to change and is not a guarantee of future results.


Fed Leadership and Policy

The new Fed chair must navigate tricky terrain: Balancing the dual mandate of price stability , approximately 2% inflation (illustrated in Inflation CPI YoY%chart) while deciding whether to look through energy and AI hardware price swings. Warsh's early move — establishing task forces with former Fed officials and academics — signals a thoughtful approach to maintaining institutional independence. It's a solid start.

 

Bottom Line

Markets absorbed considerable change this quarter while keeping their eyes on fundamentals — a healthy sign. With volatility likely to persist and multiple moving pieces in play, here's our view: Stick with your long-term investment plan and stay in close touch with your portfolio managers. They can help you navigate what's ahead.

Staying invested remains critical to capturing returns for the balance of the year. At the same time, be thoughtful about concentration risk. Consider diversifying into lower-correlation investments outside of tech to insulate your portfolio from technology-specific swings. It's a balance between staying committed and staying prudent.


Inflation CPI YoY %


Sources: Bloomberg, RBC Rochdale as of 7/28/2026. Information is subject to change and is not a guarantee of future results.

EQUITY

Earnings-Led Rebound Lifts Equities to Records


U.S. equities staged a powerful rebound in Q2 2026, with the S&P 500 gaining approximately 15% to reach new all-time highs, its strongest quarter since the 2020 post-pandemic recovery. The advance reversed Q1’s decline as the U.S.-Iran conflict de-escalated, oil price returned to pre-crisis levels and corporate earnings reaccelerated (ref. Q2-2026 U.S. Equity Performance chart).

The rally was earnings-driven rather than valuation-driven. S&P 500 earnings growth for the quarter is tracking near 23% year-over-year (YoY), with revenue growth of roughly 12% and continued margin expansion. Despite the sharp price gains, the forward price-to-earnings-ratio (P/E) finished near 22x, only modestly above its 10Y average, suggesting the advance rested on fundamentals rather than multiple expansion.

Market leadership evolved meaningfully as the quarter progressed. Technology and AI-related themes, led by semiconductors, drove the internal move off the spring lows. By quarter-end, however, participation has broadened significantly. Equal-weight, small-cap and value benchmarks all reached new record highs alongside the cap-weighted index. This broadening is a constructive signal for the durability of the advance.

June brought a clear rotation in leadership toward Industrials, Financials and Health Care, while Technology and Communication Services lagged on near-term profit taking. Industrials returned over 20% year-to-date (YTD), similar to Technology. Energy gave back its Q1 leadership as oil retreated toward pre-crisis levels, underperforming for a second straight month.

Style performance favored growth over the full quarter, extending its position as the dominant leadership factor on the strength of technology earnings momentum. Yet the late-quarter broadening into value and smaller-capitalization stocks marked a healthy shift beneath the surface, with cyclicals generally outpacing defensives (ref. Q2-2026 U.S. Sector Performance chart).

The backdrop for equities turned less accommodative. Newly confirmed Fed Chair, Kevin Warsh, established a more hawkish tone, refocusing policy on the 2% inflation mandate. Market shifted from pricing rate cuts toward higher-for-longer-expectations, a dynamic worth watching, as sustained rate pressure could challenge valuations even as earnings remain strong.


Q2-2026 U.S. Equity Performance

Sources: Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Index, S&P 100 Index, S&P 500 Index, S&P 500 Equity Weight Index, S&P 400 Index, S&P 600 Index, Russell 1000 Value Index, Russell 1000 Growth Index, Goldman Sachs Cyclicals Basket, Goldman Sachs Defensives Basket as of 6/30/2026. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

Q2-2026 U.S. Sector Performance

Sources: S&P 1500 Communication Services Index, S&P 1500 Consumer Discretionary Index, S&P 1500 Consumer Staples Index, S&P 1500 Energy Index, S&P 1500 Financials Index, S&P 1500 Health Care Index, S&P 1500 Industrials Index, S&P 1500 Information Technology Index, S&P 1500 Materials Index, S&P 1500 Real Estate Index, S&P 1500 Utilities Index as of 6/30/2026. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

INVESTMENT-GRADE FIXED INCOME

Bonds Rebound with Resilience Through the First Half

Investment-grade (IG) fixed income delivered a solid rebound during the second quarter, closing out the first half of the year in positive territory. Market conditions improved notably as volatility eased from March's highs, supported by more stable macroeconomic fundamentals and de-escalating Middle East tensions that helped normalize energy flows and temper inflation pressures.

Coupon carry proved to be a significant driver of quarterly returns across all major segments, with U.S. Treasuries gaining 0.32%, IG corporates up 1.4% and municipal bonds surging 2.5%, marking their strongest quarter since 2020 (ref. Total Returns chart). This municipal bond strength was fueled by a late-quarter rally as yields compressed. The outperformance has continued to attract substantial investor demand. The Bloomberg Municipal Bond Index saw yields decline over 20 basis points (bps) during the quarter, even as Treasury yields moved higher. 

While this tightening has priced in much of the valuation benefit, tax-equivalent adjusted yields remain compelling at roughly 6%, meaningfully above taxable alternatives like corporates at 5.2% and Treasuries at 4.5% (ref. Index Yields chart). This yield advantage is particularly attractive for higher-bracket investors seeking after-tax returns.

Despite year-over-year (YoY) municipal supply growth on track for potentially record volumes in 2026, steady mutual fund inflows (about $50 billion year-to-date (YTD) and strong seasonal reinvestments have effectively absorbed new issuance, providing a favorable backdrop for performance. Similarly, IG corporate technical indicators remain robust, with YTD issuance exceeding $1.5 trillion, a 28% increase YoY. Corporations have actively tapped markets to finance AI-driven capital expenditures, infrastructure initiatives and refinancing activities. Despite elevated supply, investor demand for IG corporates has remained robust, with many new issues attracting oversubscribed order books. This strength reflects both resilient corporate fundamentals and attractive starting yields that provide meaningful cushion against rate volatility.

Looking ahead, geopolitical risks and Middle East uncertainty warrant close monitoring. While credit fundamentals remain sound across both corporate and municipal sectors, upward pressure on Treasury yields could weaken spreads and influence curve positioning decisions. However, the steep municipal curve continued to reward investors for extending duration. With the risk of volatility likely to remain at least in the near term, both tactical positioning and security selection during market dislocations should help capture meaningful value given today’s attractive absolute yields across IG fixed income asset classes.


Fixed Income Index Total Returns

Fixed Income Index Yields


** Taxable Equivalent Yield (TEY) Assumes 37% Federal Tax and 3.8% Medicare surcharge.

Sources: Bloomberg US Treasury Total Return Unhedged USD Index, Bloomberg Intermediate Muni Index, Bloomberg Municipal Bond Index Total Return Index Value Unhedged USD, Intermediate Corporate Bloomberg US Corporate Total Return Value Unhedged USD, Bloomberg Global Aggregate Total Return as of 6/30/2026. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

HIGH-YIELD FIXED INCOME

High-Yield Rebounds as Income Leads

High-yield municipal bonds (HYM) have emerged as a standout performer, delivering gains above 4% year-to-date, driven by stable demand, secondary market liquidity and steady credit conditions.

For tax-efficient investors, high-yield municipal bonds offer particularly attractive income opportunities heading into the second half. The resilience of municipal fundamentals and consistent investor appetite have positioned HYM as a compelling alternative within the broader high-yield landscape (ref. High-Yield Corporate Spread chart).

Meanwhile, the taxable high-yield markets also experienced a sharp rebound, recovering faster than expected from March’s volatility. Spreads on the Intercontinental Exchange Bank of America (ICE BofA) U.S. High-Yield Index tightened from 346 basis points  (bps) in late March to 275 bps by quarter-end, among the narrowest levels of this cycle. Despite upward pressure from U.S. Treasury yields, strong coupon income and spread compression drove modest positive returns of approximately 2.4% year-to-date for the major benchmarks.

Supportive macro conditions drove the recovery. Easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, stabilizing energy flows and fading inflationary pressures restored investor confidence across the market. Technical conditions improved sharply, with March outflows reversing to inflows and primary market issuance surging to record levels as companies refinanced ahead of an uncertain rate trajectory. The Fed’s tilt toward further tightening reinforces income as the primary return driver going forward, rather than spread performance.

Sector dispersion persists and warrants caution. Technology credits continuing repricing amid AI-driven business model reassessments, while energy issuers benefit from elevated commodity prices. This bifurcation, though more orderly than earlier in the year, reflects market adjustments. Spreads are trading well below their 400 bps long-term average, yet the Moody’s trailing default rate approaches 4.5%. While tight spreads and rising defaults can temporarily coexist, it signals the need for disciplined credit selection, prioritizing quality and liquidity over yield-chasing in stressed segments.

Looking ahead, we believe income have the potential to anchor portfolio returns. Current yields support mid-single-digit annual returns, particularly for high-yield municipals. Investors should remain vigilant and favor defensive positioning amid elevated default risks and compressed valuations across the market.


High-Yield Corporate Spread: June 2006 - June 2026


Source: Bloomberg High-Yield Corporate OAS Index as of 6/30/2026. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

ALT ALLOCATIONS

A Constructive Reset Across Private Markets

Alternative investments entered the second quarter under pressure and exited it in better shape. Across private credit, private equity and real assets, the pattern was consistent: Less activity, more discipline and a healthier balance between risk and reward.

Private credit stabilized after March volatility. Redemption requests in semi-liquid vehicles topped $20 billion in the first quarter, the first real test of these structures at scale. The safeguards largely worked as designed, and managers seem to be aligned on how to work through redemption cycles, balancing outflows with inflows, maturities and financing solutions. Pricing has also reset in lenders’ favor, with spreads on new middle-market loans roughly 25 to 50 bps wider than late last year. Software remains the pressure point as AI disruption increasingly looks structural rather than cyclical, and underwriting standards have tightened in response.

Private equity was quieter. U.S. deal value fell 38% from the prior quarter to $177 billion as sponsors stepped back from large, financing-dependent transactions and exit activity slowed as well. IPOs were the brightest spot, doubling from the first quarter, while continuation vehicles and secondaries carried more of the burden of returning capital. Fundraising rose 9% in the first half versus a year ago, but commitments are concentrating among managers who can show realized returns. For new capital, lower entry multiples and motivated business sellers have historically been a solid environment.

Real assets stood out. Private infrastructure fundraising reached a record $251 billion in 2025, up more than 150% from the prior year, and nearly 700 funds were in the market this spring seeking $555 billion more (ref. Private Infrastructure Fundraising chart). The AI buildout is the engine: Capital spending by the largest data center operators is on pace to approach $750 billion this year, nearly double 2025 levels, with power availability now the binding constraint (ref. Data Center Capital Expenditure chart).

RBC Rochdale's approach to alternatives is unchanged. We favor selectivity, demand fair compensation for illiquidity and let discipline, not momentum, set the pace.


Private Infrastructure Fundraising ($B)

Note: 695 infrastructure funds were in the fundraising phase as of May 2026, targeting an aggregate $555B. Sources: S&P Global Market Intelligence; Preqin, PitchBook, all data as of 5/15/2026. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

Data Center Operator Capital Expenditure ($B)

Source: Bloomberg NEF, data as of 6/30/2026. 2026 figure is an estimate. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

THE FED

There is a New Sheriff in Town

Kevin Warsh became the 17th Chair of the Federal Reserve back in May. He has been eager for this job for some time and he hit the ground running.

First and foremost, Warsh made it clear that he had “[...]No tolerance for persistently elevated inflation.” This is an important step by the new Chair to establish credibility with the financial markets by telling the world that he is willing to make hawkish changes to monetary policy to achieve the goal. That said, he has yet to frame out the strategy for delivering on the pledge. We believe that Warsh and other Fed policymakers will wait until at least September for the summer data to be released before they make a decision on possible policy changes.


Although inflation probably peaked in May (ref. Inflation: CPI chart), the question is how quickly it will decline towards the target rate of 2.0%. The greatest uncertainty for the Fed regarding inflation, is the ongoing U.S.–Iran conflict. Hopefully, there will be some sort of resolution before September.

Also, Warsh announced an important initiative: A series of task forces that are aimed at examining many of the Fed’s key activities. He believes an overhaul is needed because past policies are responsible for current inflation, which has been above target for more than five years. 

Inflation: CPI
%, y-o-y

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, data as of 6/20/2026. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

The five task forces created are communication, balance-sheet policy, data, job productivity and inflation framework. They will be led by highly credible external advisors who will work with Fed staff members. The advisors are made up of prominent academics, former central bankers and well-established business executives.

RBC Rochdale believes the Fed may not make any changes to the federal funds rate this year. Yet, we understand there is a high level of risk that the Fed will have to raise interest rates because inflation does not decline fast enough for their comfort level. But we see inflation has been high due to three key areas: Tariffs, energy and AI. The tariffs, which were put in place last year, should soon fall off the yearly inflation calculation. Energy and AI inflation will probably not be impacted by interest rates moving up 25 or 50 bps, since they are inelastic; people and companies will still buy them at the higher prices. So, changes in Fed policy would have very little impact on demand. 

The median funds rate currently stands at 3.625% and has been there since last December (ref. Federal Funds Rate chart).


Federal Funds Rate
%, media rate


Sources: Federal Reserve, data as of 6/20/2026. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.


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